GSA Semiconductor Ecosystem | Global Semiconductor Alliance

Forecasts

Starting late 2008, GSA started tracking semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish at year end. We will periodically update the table as analysts revise their forecasts, tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.

2013 Forecasts

2013 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts

Company	2013 Forecasted Growth	As of
Future Horizons	20%	Jan 2012
IHS iSuppli	6.7%	Jan 2012
	9.2%	Apr 2012

2012 Forecasts

2012 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts

Company	2012 Forecasted Growth	As of
Bank of America Merrill Lynch	1.2%	Jan 2012
Barclays Capital	2-5%	N/A
	0-4%	Jan 2012
Carnegie Group	2.0%	Dec 2011
Cowan LRA	8.4%	Oct 2011
	5.9%	Jan 2012
	2.3-4.3%	Feb 2012
FBR Capital Markets	5.0%	Dec 2011
Future Horizons	8.0%	Oct 2011
Gartner	1.8%	Sept 2010
	8.6%	N/A
	4.6%	Sept 2011
	2.2%	Dec 2011
	4.0%	Mar 2012
IBS	6-7%	Jan 2012
IC Insights	11.0%	Jan 2011
	5.0%	Sept 2011
	7.0%	Jan 2012
	6.0%	May 2012
IDC	5.0%	July 2011
	3.1%	Dec 2011
	6-7%	Apr 2012
IHS iSuppli	1.5%	Oct 2010
	4.8%	Jun 2011
	3.4%	Sept 2011
	3.2%	Nov 2011
	3.3%	Jan 2012
	4.3%	Apr 2012
Semico	8.0%	Oct 2011
	10.0%	Dec 2011
	8.0%	Jan 2012
	10.1%	Feb 2012
Semiconductor Intelligence	8.0%	Oct 2010
	10.0%	Aug 2011
	9.0%	Nov 2011
	-1.0%	Feb 2012
TSMC	3-5%	Oct 2011
	2.0%	Jan 2012
VLSI Research	7.9%	Dec 2010
Wells Fargo Securities	10-15%	Aug 2011
WSTS	5.6%	Nov 2010
	4.2%	Dec 2010
	7.6%	Jun 2011
	2.6%	Dec 2011

2011 Forecasts

2011 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts

Company	2011 Forecasted Growth	As of
Barclays Capital	1-2%	Jan 2012
Carnegie ASA	8.0%	Oct 2010
	5.0%	May 2011
Cowan LRA	2.3%	Dec 2010
	5.1%	Feb 2011
	5.0%	Oct 2011
Databeans	8.0%	Feb 2011
	5.0%	July 2011
Future Horizons	9.0%	Sept 2010
	6.0%	Dec 2010
	4.0%	Jul 2011
	1.0%	Oct 2011
Gartner	4.6%	Sept 2010
	5.1%	June 2011
	-0.1%	Sept 2011
	0.9%	Dec 2011
IC Insights	11.0%	Nov 2010
	10.0%	Dec 2010
	5.0%	Aug 2011
IC Knowledge	>10.0%	Dec 2010
IDC	9.0%	Dec 2010
	6-8%	Apr 2011
	3.4%	Dec 2011
International Business Strategies	7.4%	Jan 2011
IHS iSuppli	5.1%	Oct 2010
	7.0%	Apr 2011
	7.2%	Jun 2011
	4.6%	Aug 2011
	2.9%	Sept 2011
	1.2%	Nov 2011
Nomura Securities	3.1%	Dec 2010
	4.4%	May 2011
Semico	9.5%	Nov 2010
	8.0%	Dec 2010
	6.0%	Jan 2011
	-2.0%	Sept 2011
	-1.4%	Oct 2011
	0.34%	Dec 2011
Semiconductor Intelligence	9.0%	Oct 2010
	4.0%	Aug 2011
	3.0%	Nov 2011
TSMC	2.0%	May 2011
	4.0%	Jul 2011
	1.0%	Oct 2011
VLSI Research	4.4%	Nov 2010
	8.9%	Mar 2011
	12.2%	Mar 2011
	8.0%	N/A
	3.0%	Sept 2011
Wells Fargo Securities	0-5%	Aug 2011
WSTS	4.5%	Nov 2010
	5.6%	Dec 2010
	5.4%	Jun 2011
	1.3%	Dec 2011

2010 Forecasts

2010 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts

Company	2010 Forecasted Growth	As of
Carnegie ASA	15.0%	Mar 2010
	27.0%	Oct 2010
	29.0%	Dec 2010
Cowan LRA Model	6.5%	Jan 2010
	40.0%	Mar 2010
	32.1%	Apr 2010
	30.3%	May 2010
	35.1%	Sept 2010
	33.1%	Dec 2010
Databeans	15.0%	Jan 2010
	22.6%	Apr 2010
Future Horizons	20.0%	Jul 2009
	22.0%	Dec 2009
	31.0%	May 2010
	36.0%	Jul 2010
	28.0%	Aug 2010
	35.9%	Nov 2010
Gartner Dataquest	19.9%	Feb 2010
	27.1%	Jun 2010
	31.5%	Sept 2010
Goldman Sachs	30.0%	Mar 2010
IC Insights	15.0%	Jan 2010
	27.0%	Mar 2010
	31.0%	Nov 2010
IC Knowledge	30.0%	Sep 2010
IDC	31-33%	Dec 2010
	16.0%-18.0%	May 2010
	22.0%	Jul 2010
	32.0%	Sept 2010
iSuppli	21.5%	Feb 2010
	23.2%	Apr 2010
	30.6%	May 2010
	35.1%	Aug 2010
	32.0%	Nov 2010
Semico	20.0%	Jan 2010
	24.0%	Mar 2010
	31.0%	Aug 2010
	32.0%	Nov 2010
	32.5%	Dec 2010
Semiconductor Intelligence	22.0%	Jan 2010
SIA	36.0%	Aug 2010
	34.0%	Nov 2010
	10.0%	Jan 2010
	28.4%	Jun 2010
	32.8%	Nov 2010
VLSI Research	17.0%	Mar 2010
	21.9%	Apr 2010
	25.0%	May 2010
	28.0%	Jun 2010
	30.0%	Jul 2010
	33.7%	Aug 2010
	32.0%	Sept 2010
	30.9%	Nov 2010
WSTS	12.0%	Jan 2010
	28.6%	Jun 2010
	12.0%	Jan 2010

2009 Forecasts

2009 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts

Company	2009 Forecasted Growth	As of Date	Revised 2009 Forecasted Growth	As of Date
t.AmTech	-20.0%	Dec 2008
Carnegie ASA	-5.0%	N/A	-8.0%	Dec 2008
			-13.0%	Apr 2009
			-15.0%	Jul 2009
Citigroup	-20.0%	Jan 2009
Cowan LRA Model	-26.8%	Apr 2009	-22.6%	Jun 2009
			-21.1%	Jul 2009
			-20.0%	Aug 2009
			-17.4%	Sept 2009
			-16.1%	Oct 2009
			-14.6%	Nov 2009
			-12.3%	Dec 2009
Databeans	-6.0%	Dec 2008	-18.0%	Feb 2009
Future Horizons	-2.0%	Nov 2008	-28.0%	Jan 2009
			-14.0%	Jul 2009
			-10.0%	Oct 2009
Gartner Dataquest	-2.2% to -10.3%	Nov 2008	-16.3%	Dec 2008
			-20.0%	Jan 2009
			-24.1%	Feb 2009
			-22.4%	May 2009
			-17.0%	Aug 2009
			-11.4%	Nov 2009
Goldman Sachs	-10.0% to -15.0%	Jan 2009
IC Insights	~3.2%	Nov 2008	-17.0%	Mar 2009
IDC	-22.0%	Feb 2009	-12.0%	Dec 2009
In-Stat	-20.0%	Feb 2009
InsideChips	-18.0%	Dec 2008	-20.0%	Jan 2009
Semico	-4.3%	Jan 2008	-12.5%	Oct 2009
iSuppli	6.8%	N/A	-9.4%	Dec 2008
			-23.0%	May 2009
			-17.6%	Aug 2009
			-16.5%	Sept 2009
			-12.4%	Nov 2009
JP Morgan	-17.0%	N/A	-20.0%	Jan 2009
Merrill Lynch	-10.0%	Nov 2008	-22.0%	Jan 2009
SIA	-5.6%	Nov 2008	-21.3%	Jun 2009
			-11.6%	Nov 2009
VLSI Research	-6.9%	Nov 2008	-13.0%	Jun 2009
Wachovia Capital Markets	-5.0% to -15.0%	Nov 2008
WSTS	-2.2%	Nov 2008	-21.6%	Jun 2009
			-11.5%	Nov 2009

Actual Growth

Actual Sales 1994-2010 (WW Semi & Fabless)

	Semiconductor Revenue ($M)	Fabless Revenue ($M)	% of Fabless Revenue to Semiconductor
1994	$101,800	$3,248	3.2%
1995	$144,400	$5,921	4.1%
1996	$131,900	$6,729	5.1%
1997	$137,200	$7,435	5.4%
1998	$126,600	$7,280	5.8%
1999	$149,400	$10,183	6.8%
2000	$204,400	$16,983	8.3%
2001	$138,900	$13,307	9.6%
2002	$140,800	$14,632	10.4%
2003	$166,400	$22,347	13.4%
2004	$213,000	$33,362	15.7%
2005	$227,500	$38,977	17.1%
2006	$247,700	$49,591	20.0%
2007	$275,500	$51,503	18.7%
2008	$258,600	$50,976	19.7%
2009	$235,163	$56,189	23.9%
2010	$299,894	$73,612	24.5%

Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.

Actual Growth 1994-2010 (WW Semi & Fabless)

	Semiconductor Growth (%)	Fabless Growth (%)
1995	41.8%	82.3%
1996	-8.7%	13.6%
1997	4.0%	10.5%
1998	-7.7%	-2.1%
1999	18.0%	39.9%
2000	36.8%	66.8%
2001	-32.0%	-21.6%
2002	1.4%	10.0%
2003	18.2%	52.7%
2004	28.0%	49.3%
2005	6.8%	16.8%
2006	8.9%	27.2%
2007	11.2%	3.9%
2008	-6.1%	-1.0%
2009	-9.1%	10.2%
2010	27.5%	31.0%

Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.