Forecasts
In 2008, GSA started tracking semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish at year-end. We periodically update the table as analysts revise their forecasts, tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.
2018 Forecasts
| Company | 2018 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Cowan LRA | 3.6% | Mar 2017 |
| 4.6% | Apr 2017 | |
| 3.5% | May 2017 | |
| 3.4% | June 2017 | |
| 3.3% | July 2017 | |
| 3.1% | Aug 2017 | |
| 3.2% | Sep 2017 | |
| Future Horizons | 16.0% | Sep 2017 |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 6.0% | Feb 2017 |
| 7.0% | May 2017 | |
| WSTS | 2.3% | Nov 2016 |
| 2.3% | Feb 2017 | |
| 2.7% | June 2017 | |
| 4.3% | Aug 2017 |
| Company | 2017 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Cowan LRA | 4.7% | Mar 2016 |
| 7.1% | Apr 2016 | |
| 6.1% | May 2016 | |
| 6.1% | Jul 2016 | |
| 5.4% | Sep 2016 | |
| 5.3% | Oct 2016 | |
| 4.5% | Nov 2016 | |
| 4.7% | Dec 2016 | |
| 4.4% | Jan 2017 | |
| 14.7% | Mar 2017 | |
| 17.5% | Apr 2017 | |
| 15.3% | May 2017 | |
| 16.1% | June 2017 | |
| 16.8% | July 2017 | |
| 16.7% | Aug 2017 | |
| 17.8% | Sep 2017 | |
| Databeans Inc. | 10.1% | Apr 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | 5.0% | Dec 2016 |
| Future Horizons | -1.0% | Sep 2016 |
| 11.0% | Jan 2017 | |
| 20.0% | Sep 2017 | |
| Gartner | 5.4% | Dec 2015 |
| 4.7% | Aug 2016 | |
| 7.2% | Jan 2017 | |
| 12.3% | Apr 2017 | |
| 16.8% | Jul 2017 | |
| IBS | 3.9% | Apr 2015 |
| 4.6% | Nov 2016 | |
| IC Insights | 4.0% | Oct 2016 |
| 5.0% | Feb 2017 | |
| 11.0% | Mar 2017 | |
| 15.0% | Jul 2017 | |
| IHS Markit | 4.8% | Sep 2016 |
| MIC | 1.8% | Sep 2016 |
| Semico Research | 5.3% | Jan 2017 |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 7.5% | May 2016 |
| 8.0% | Aug 2016 | |
| 8.0% | Dec 2016 | |
| 10.0% | Feb 2017 | |
| 16.0% | May 2017 | |
| TSMC | 4.0% | Jan 2017 |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 8-14% | Mar 2016 |
| WSTS | 3.1% | Dec 2015 |
| 3.0% | Mar 2016 | |
| 2.0% | Jun 2016 | |
| 3.0% | Nov 2016 | |
| 3.3% | Dec 2016 | |
| 6.5% | Feb 2017 | |
| 11.5% | June 2017 | |
| 17.0% | Aug 2017 |
| Company | 2016 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Cowan LRA | 6.0% | Feb 2015 |
| 6.0% | Mar 2015 | |
| 6.5% | Apr 2015 | |
| 5.2% | May 2015 | |
| 5.2% | Jun 2015 | |
| 5.4% | Jul 2015 | |
| 5.3% | Aug 2015 | |
| 5.4% | Sep 2015 | |
| 5.1% | Nov 2015 | |
| 5.1% | Dec 2015 | |
| 4.9% | Jan 2016 | |
| 3.3% | Mar 2016 | |
| 2.5% | Apr 2016 | |
| -1.8% | May 2016 | |
| -2.1% | Jul 2016 | |
| -2.1% | Sep 2016 | |
| -1.6% | Oct 2016 | |
| -1.4% | Nov 2016 | |
| -0.5% | Dec 2016 | |
| 0.5% | Jan 2017 | |
| Credit Suisse | -0.5% | Oct 2015 |
| Databeans | 3.0% | May 2016 |
| Future Horizons | 0.0% | Sep 2015 |
| -3.8% | Sep 2016 | |
| Gartner | 1.0% | Oct 2014 |
| 1.3% | Jul 2015 | |
| 1.9% | Oct 2015 | |
| -0.6% | Apr 2016 | |
| -3.0% | Aug 2016 | |
| -0.9% | Oct 2016 | |
| 1.5% | Jan 2017 | |
| IBS | -1.5% | Jan 2016 |
| -2.1% | Apr 2016 | |
| 0.2% | Nov 2016 | |
| IC Insights | 5.0% | Oct 2015 |
| 4.0% | Jan 2016 | |
| -1.0% | Jul 2016 | |
| 1.0% | Oct 2016 | |
| IDC | -2.3% | May 2016 |
| IHS Markit | 1.8% | Nov 2016 |
| Objective Analysis | 12.0% | Jan 2016 |
| Semico Research | 7.6% | Sep 2015 |
| 3-4% | Dec 2015 | |
| -0.3% | Mar 2016 | |
| -2.5% | Oct 2016 | |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 5-9% | Sep 2014 |
| 7.0% | Dec 2014 | |
| 7.0% | Mar 2015 | |
| 7.0% | Jun 2015 | |
| 6.0% | Aug 2015 | |
| 6.0% | Oct 2015 | |
| 3.0% | Feb 2016 | |
| 1.0% | May 2016 | |
| -2.0% | Aug 2016 | |
| 0.1% | Dec 2016 | |
| SIA | 1.1% | Feb 2017 |
| TrendForce | -0.6% | Dec 2015 |
| TSMC | 1.0% | Apr 2016 |
| VLSI Research | 4.1% | Feb 2016 |
| -0.7% | Aug 2016 | |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 7.0% | Mar 2016 |
| WSTS | 3.1% | Dec 2014 |
| 3.1% | Mar 2015 | |
| 3.4% | Jun 2015 | |
| 3.1% | Aug 2015 | |
| 1.4% | Dec 2015 | |
| 0.3% | Mar 2016 | |
| -2.4% | Jun 2016 | |
| 0.0% | Nov 2016 | |
| -0.1% | Dec 2016 |
| Company | 2015 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | 6.8% | Dec 2014 |
| Bharat Book Bureau | 3.4% | Mar 2015 |
| Cowan LRA | 6.0% | Mar 2014 |
| 4.7% | Apr 2014 | |
| 4.2% | May 2014 | |
| 4.4% | Jun 2014 | |
| 4.6% | Jul 2014 | |
| 4.4% | Aug 2014 | |
| 4.6% | Sep 2014 | |
| 4.6% | Oct 2014 | |
| 4.3% | Nov 2014 | |
| 4.2% | Dec 2014 | |
| 4.1% | Jan 2015 | |
| 4.2% | Feb 2015 | |
| 9.5% | Mar 2015 | |
| 8.8% | Apr 2015 | |
| 4.7% | May 2015 | |
| 5.1% | Jun 2015 | |
| 5.3% | Jul 2015 | |
| 3.4% | Aug 2015 | |
| 2.7% | Sep 2015 | |
| 1.0% | Nov 2015 | |
| 0.9% | Dec 2015 | |
| 0.7% | Jan 2016 | |
| Credit Suisse | 0.3% | Oct 2015 |
| EE Herald | 2-3% | Jul 2015 |
| Future Horizons | 18.0% | Jan 2014 |
| 15.0% | Sep 2014 | |
| 8.5% | Jan 2015 | |
| 2.0% | Sep 2015 | |
| Gartner | 4.8% | Apr 2014 |
| 5.0% | Aug 2014 | |
| 5.8% | Oct 2014 | |
| 5.4% | Jan 2015 | |
| 4.0% | Apr 2015 | |
| 2.2% | Jul 2015 | |
| -0.8% | Oct 2015 | |
| -1.9% | Jan 2016 | |
| -2.3% | Apr 2016 | |
| GMR Data | 3.4% | Mar 2015 |
| IC Insights | 7.5% | Sep 2014 |
| 7.0% | Jan 2015 | |
| 5.0% | May 2015 | |
| 2.0% | Aug 2015 | |
| -1.0% | Oct 2015 | |
| IDC | 3.8% | Jan 2015 |
| 3.6% | Mar 2015 | |
| 5.0% | Sep 2015 | |
| IHS Technology | 5.0% | Apr 2015 |
| MIC | 3.1% | Sep 2014 |
| Objective Analysis | 10.0% | Dec 2014 |
| Semico Research | 4.3% | Sep 2015 |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 9.0% | May 2014 |
| 11.0% | Sep 2014 | |
| 11.0% | Dec 2014 | |
| 8.0% | Mar 2015 | |
| 5.5% | Jun 2015 | |
| 1.5% | Aug 2015 | |
| 1.0% | Oct 2015 | |
| TSIA | 2.0% | Sep 2015 |
| TSMC | 4.0% | Apr 2015 |
| 3.0% | Jul 2015 | |
| 0.0% | Oct 2015 | |
| VLSI Research | 7.8% | Jan 2015 |
| -1.0% | Aug 2015 | |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 8-12% | Jan 2015 |
| WSTS | 3.4% | Dec 2013 |
| 3.3% | Jun 2014 | |
| 3.4% | Dec 2014 | |
| 4.9% | Mar 2015 | |
| 3.4% | Jun 2015 | |
| 2.3% | Aug 2015 | |
| 0.2% | Dec 2015 |
| Company | 2014 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | 9.6% | Jun 2013 |
| 8.5% | Dec 2014 | |
| Cowan LRA | 5.4% | May 2013 |
| 5.8% | Jun 2013 | |
| 5.7% | Jul 2013 | |
| 5.6% | Aug 2013 | |
| 5.4% | Sep 2013 | |
| 5.1% | Oct 2013 | |
| 4.7% | Nov 2013 | |
| 4.5% | Dec 2013 | |
| 4.4% | Jan 2014 | |
| 3.6% | Feb 2014 | |
| 11.3% | Mar 2014 | |
| 11.9% | Apr 2014 | |
| 8.4% | May 2014 | |
| 9.0% | Jun 2014 | |
| 9.9% | Jul 2014 | |
| 9.5% | Aug 2014 | |
| 9.8% | Sep 2014 | |
| 9.7% | Oct 2014 | |
| 8.9% | Nov 2014 | |
| 9.7% | Dec 2014 | |
| 9.9% | Jan 2015 | |
| Databeans | 9.0% | Mar 2013 |
| Digitimes Research | 5.2% | Jan 2014 |
| Deutsche Bank | 8.0% | Dec 2013 |
| Future Horizons | 25.0% | Oct 2013 |
| 8.0% | Jan 2014 | |
| 10.7% | Sep 2014 | |
| Gartner | 5.6% | Sep 2013 |
| 5.4% | Apr 2014 | |
| 6.7% | Jul 2014 | |
| 5.7% | Aug 2014 | |
| 7.2% | Oct 2014 | |
| IC Insights | 8.0% | Sep 2013 |
| 7.0% | Jan 2014 | |
| 7.1% | Sep 2014 | |
| IDC | 2.9% | Jul 2013 |
| IHS iSuppli | 7.0% | Jun 2013 |
| 9.4% | Dec 2014 | |
| ITRI | 3.6% | Apr 2014 |
| MIC | 6.7% | Sep 2014 |
| Objective Analysis | 20.0% | Dec 2013 |
| Semico Research | 10.4% | Dec 2013 |
| >7.0% | Jun 2014 | |
| >7.0% | Sep 2014 | |
| 7.4% | Nov 2014 | |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 15.0% | Dec 2013 |
| 10.0% | Feb 2014 | |
| 10.0% | May 2014 | |
| 10.0% | Sep 2014 | |
| TSIA | 3.6% | Apr 2014 |
| VLSI Research | 9.0% | Dec 2013 |
| WSTS | 5.1% | Jun 2013 |
| 4.1% | Dec 2013 | |
| 6.5% | Jun 2014 | |
| 9.0% | Dec 2014 | |
| 9.9% | Feb 2015 |
Actual Semiconductor Sales & Growth 1994-2016
| Semiconductor Revenue ($B) |
YoY Growth | |
| 1994 | $101.8 | 32.2% |
| 1995 | $144.4 | 41.8% |
| 1996 | $131.9 | -8.7% |
| 1997 | $137.2 | 4.0% |
| 1998 | $126.6 | -7.7% |
| 1999 | $149.4 | 18.0% |
| 2000 | $204.4 | 36.8% |
| 2001 | $138.9 | -32.0% |
| 2002 | $140.8 | 1.4% |
| 2003 | $166.4 | 18.2% |
| 2004 | $213.0 | 28.0% |
| 2005 | $227.5 | 6.8% |
| 2006 | $247.7 | 8.9% |
| 2007 | $275.2 | 11.1% |
| 2008 | $243.0 | -11.7% |
| 2009 | $235.2 | -3.2% |
| 2010 | $315.5 | 34.1% |
| 2011 | $314.7 | -0.3% |
| 2012 | $289.0 | -8.2% |
| 2013 | $318.5 | 10.2% |
| 2014 | $339.4 | 6.6% |
| 2015 | $320.6 | -5.5% |
| 2016 | $336.0 | 4.8% |
| 2017F | $387.1 | 15.2% |
Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.