Forecasts

In 2008, GSA started tracking semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish at year-end. We periodically update the table as analysts revise their forecasts, tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.

  • 2015 Forecasts
  • 2014 Forecasts
  • 2013 Forecasts
  • 2012 Forecasts
  • 2011 Forecasts
  • Actual Growth

2015 Forecasts

Company 2015
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Cowan LRA 6.0% Mar 2014
4.7% Apr 2014
4.2% May 2014
4.4% Jun 2014
4.6% Jul 2014
4.4% Aug 2014
4.6% Sep 2014
Future Horizons 18.0% Jan 2014
Gartner 4.8% Apr 2014
5.0% Aug 2014
MIC 3.1% Sep 2014
Semiconductor Intelligence 9.0% May 2014
WSTS 3.4% Dec 2013
3.3% Jun 2014

2014 Forecasts

Company 2014
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9.6% Jun 2013
Cowan LRA 5.4% May 2013
5.8% Jun 2013
5.7% Jul 2013
5.6% Aug 2013
5.4% Sep 2013
5.1% Oct 2013
4.7% Nov 2013
4.5% Dec 2013
4.4% Jan 2014
3.6% Feb 2014
11.3% Mar 2014
11.9% Apr 2014
8.4% May 2014
9.0% Jun 2014
9.9% Jul 2014
9.5% Aug 2014
9.8% Sep 2014
Databeans 9.0% Mar 2013
Digitimes Research 5.2% Jan 2014
Deutsche Bank 8.0% Dec 2013
Future Horizons 25.0% Oct 2013
8.0% Jan 2014
Gartner 5.6% Sep 2013
5.4% Apr 2014
6.7% Jul 2014
5.7% Aug 2014
IC Insights 8.0% Sep 2013
7.0% Jan 2014
IDC 2.9% Jul 2013
IHS iSuppli 7.0% Jun 2013
ITRI 3.6% Apr 2014
MIC 6.7% Sep 2014
Objective Analysis 20.0% Dec 2013
Semico Research 10.4% Dec 2013
>7.0% Jun 2014
>7.0% Sep 2014
Semiconductor Intelligence 15.0% Dec 2013
10.0% Feb 2014
10.0% May 2014
TSIA 3.6% Apr 2014
VLSI Research 9.0% Dec 2013
WSTS 5.1% Jun 2013
4.1% Dec 2013
6.5% Jun 2014

2013 Forecasts

Company 2013
Forecasted
Growth
As of
ABI Research 3.0% Sep 2013
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 12.4% Jan 2013
7.6% Jun 2013
Carnegie Group 7.0% Jul 2012
5.0% N/A
-1.0% Jun 2013
Cowan LRA 7.7% Sep 2012
5.2% Nov 2012
6.4% Dec 2012
5.5% Jan 2013
3.6% Feb 2013
6.6% Mar 2013
4.2% Apr 2013
1.6% May 2013
3.0% Jun 2013
4.0% Jul 2013
3.1% Aug 2013
4.2% Sep 2013
4.3% Oct 2013
4.1% Nov 2013
4.3% Dec 2013
4.7% Jan 2014
Databeans 7.0% Jan 2013
7.1% Mar 2013
Future Horizons 20% Jan 2012
7.9% Nov 2012
8.0% Jan 2013
6.9% Jul 2013
6.9% Oct 2013
Gartner 4.2% Nov 2012
4.5% Dec 2012
4.5% Apr 2013
5.2% Sep 2013
5.2% Oct 2013
IBS -1.1% Nov 2012
-0.5% Feb 2013
IC Insights 6.0% Nov 2012
5.0% May 2013
4.8% Oct 2013
IDC 6.2% Jul 2012
4.9% Nov 2012
3.5% May 2013
6.9% Jul 2013
IHS iSuppli 6.7% Jan 2012
9.2% Apr 2012
8.2% Nov 2012
5.6% Apr 2013
4.8% May 2013
5.0% Dec 2013
Semico Research 5-6% Sep 2013
5.6% Dec 2013
Semiconductor Intelligence 9.0% Nov 2012
6.0% May 2013
5-6% Nov 2013
TSMC 3.0% Jan 2013
4.0% Apr 2013
3.0% Jul 2013
4.0% Oct 2013
VLSI Research 10.0% Dec 2012
7.7% Oct 2013
7.3% Dec 2013
Wells Fargo Securities 8-10% Jan 2013
WSTS 7.2% Jun 2012
4.5% Nov 2012
2.1% Jun 2013
4.4% Dec 2013

2012 Forecasts

Company 2012
Forecasted
Growth
As of
ABI -5.0% Aug 2012
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 1.2% Jan 2012
Barclays Capital 2-5% N/A
0-4% Jan 2012
Carnegie Group 2.0% Dec 2011
0% Jul 2012
Cowan LRA 8.4% Oct 2011
5.9% Jan 2012
2.3-4.3% Feb 2012
0% Jul 2012
-0.9% Aug 2012
-0.5% Sep 2012
-2.6% Nov 2012
-2.3% Dec 2012
-2.2% Jan 2013
FBR Capital Markets 5.0% Dec 2011
Future Horizons 8.0% Oct 2011
4.0% Jul 2012
-2.4% Nov 2012
Gartner 8.6% N/A
4.6% Sep 2011
2.2% Dec 2011
4.0% Mar 2012
-3.0% Nov 2012
Henderson Ventures 2.2% Jun 2012
IBS 6-7% Jan 2012
-0.3% Nov 2012
IC Insights 11.0% Jan 2011
5.0% Sep 2011
7.0% Jan 2012
6.0% May 2012
3.0% Aug 2012
-1.0% Nov 2012
IDC 5.0% Jul 2011
3.1% Dec 2011
6-7% Apr 2012
4.6% Jul 2012
2.5% Nov 2012
<1.0% Dec 2012
IHS iSuppli 1.5% Oct 2010
4.8% Jun 2011
3.4% Sep 2011
3.2% Nov 2011
3.3% Jan 2012
4.3% Apr 2012
<3.0% Aug 2012
-0.1% Aug 2012
-3.1% Nov 2012
-2.3% Dec 2012
Semico 8.0% Oct 2011
10.0% Dec 2011
8.0% Jan 2012
10.1% Feb 2012
8.6% Jul 2012
6-8% Aug 2012
Semiconductor Intelligence 8.0% Oct 2010
10.0% Aug 2011
9.0% Nov 2011
-1.0% Feb 2012
2.0% Apr 2012
-1.0% Aug 2012
-2.5% Nov 2012
TSMC 3-5% Oct 2011
2.0% Jan 2012
1-2% Jul 2012
VLSI Research 7.9% Dec 2010
2.3% Jun 2012
Wells Fargo Securities 10-15% Aug 2011
0% Aug 2012
WSTS 5.6% Nov 2010
4.2% Dec 2010
7.6% Jun 2011
2.6% Dec 2011
0.4% Jun 2012
-3.2% Nov 2012

2011 Forecasts

Company 2011
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Barclays Capital 1-2% Jan 2012
Carnegie ASA 8.0% Oct 2010
5.0% May 2011
Cowan LRA 2.3% Dec 2010
5.1% Feb 2011
5.0% Oct 2011
Databeans 8.0% Feb 2011
5.0% Jul 2011
Future Horizons 9.0% Sep 2010
6.0% Dec 2010
4.0% Jul 2011
1.0% Oct 2011
Gartner 4.6% Sep 2010
5.1% Jun 2011
-0.1% Sep 2011
0.9% Dec 2011
IC Insights 11.0% Nov 2010
10.0% Dec 2010
5.0% Aug 2011
IC Knowledge >10.0% Dec 2010
IDC 9.0% Dec 2010
6-8% Apr 2011
3.4% Dec 2011
International Business Strategies 7.4% Jan 2011
IHS iSuppli 5.1% Oct 2010
7.0% Apr 2011
7.2% Jun 2011
4.6% Aug 2011
2.9% Sep 2011
1.2% Nov 2011
Nomura Securities 3.1% Dec 2010
4.4% May 2011
Semico 9.5% Nov 2010
8.0% Dec 2010
6.0% Jan 2011
-2.0% Sep 2011
-1.4% Oct 2011
0.34% Dec 2011
Semiconductor Intelligence 9.0% Oct 2010
4.0% Aug 2011
3.0% Nov 2011
TSMC 2.0% May 2011
4.0% Jul 2011
1.0% Oct 2011
VLSI Research 4.4% Nov 2010
8.9% Mar 2011
12.2% Mar 2011
8.0% N/A
3.0% Sep 2011
Wells Fargo Securities 0-5% Aug 2011
WSTS 4.5% Nov 2010
5.6% Dec 2010
5.4% Jun 2011
1.3% Dec 2011

Actual Growth

Actual Sales 1994-2013 (WW Semi & Fabless)

Semiconductor
Revenue ($M)
Fabless
Revenue ($M)
% of Fabless Revenue
to Semiconductor
1994 $101,800 $3,248 3.2%
1995 $144,400 $5,921 4.1%
1996 $131,900 $6,729 5.1%
1997 $137,200 $7,435 5.4%
1998 $126,600 $7,280 5.8%
1999 $149,400 $10,183 6.8%
2000 $204,400 $16,983 8.3%
2001 $138,900 $13,307 9.6%
2002 $140,800 $14,632 10.4%
2003 $166,400 $24,191 14.5%
2004 $213,000 $33,866 15.9%
2005 $227,500 $40,434 17.8%
2006 $247,700 $43,175 17.4%
2007 $275,216 $52,645 19.1%
2008 $242,974 $49,340 20.3%
2009 $235,163 $56,189 23.9%
2010 $315,521 $74,505 23.6%
2011 $314,650 $74,209 23.6%
2012 $288,963 $77,774 26.9%
2013 $318,522 $92,756 29.1%

Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.

Actual Growth 1994-2013 (WW Semi & Fabless)

Semiconductor
Growth (%)
Fabless
Growth (%)
1995 41.8% 82.3%
1996 -8.7% 13.6%
1997 4.0% 10.5%
1998 -7.7% -2.1%
1999 18.0% 39.9%
2000 36.8% 66.8%
2001 -32.0% -21.6%
2002 1.4% 10.0%
2003 18.2% 65.3%
2004 28.0% 40.0%
2005 6.8% 19.4%
2006 8.9% 6.8%
2007 11.1% 21.9%
2008 -11.7% -6.3%
2009 -3.2% 13.9%
2010 34.2% 32.6%
2011 -0.3% -0.4%
2012 -8.2% 4.8%
2013 10.2% 19.3%

Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.

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