In 2008, GSA started tracking semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish at year-end. We periodically update the table as analysts revise their forecasts, tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.
- 2013 Forecasts
- 2012 Forecasts
- 2011 Forecasts
- Actual Growth
2013 Forecasts
| Company | 2013 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | 12.4% | Jan 2013 |
| Carnegie Group | 7.0% | Jul 2012 |
| Cowan LRA | 7.7% | Sep 2012 |
| 5.2% | Nov 2012 | |
| 6.4% | Dec 2012 | |
| 5.5% | Jan 2013 | |
| 3.6% | Feb 2013 | |
| 6.6% | Mar 2013 | |
| 4.2% | Apr 2013 | |
| Databeans | 7.0% | Jan 2013 |
| Future Horizons | 20% | Jan 2012 |
| 7.9% | Nov 2012 | |
| 8.0% | Jan 2013 | |
| Gartner | 4.2% | Nov 2012 |
| 4.5% | Dec 2012 | |
| IBS | -1.1% | Nov 2012 |
| -0.5% | Feb 2013 | |
| IC Insights | 6.0% | Nov 2012 |
| IDC | 6.2% | Jul 2012 |
| 4.9% | Nov 2012 | |
| IHS iSuppli | 6.7% | Jan 2012 |
| 9.2% | Apr 2012 | |
| 8.2% | Nov 2012 | |
| 5.6% | Apr 2013 | |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 9.0% | Nov 2012 |
| TSMC | 3.0% | Jan 2013 |
| 4.0% | Apr 2013 | |
| VLSI Research | 10.0% | Dec 2012 |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 8-10% | Jan 2013 |
| WSTS | 7.2% | Jun 2012 |
| 4.5% | Nov 2012 |
2012 Forecasts
| Company | 2012 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| ABI | -5.0% | Aug 2012 |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | 1.2% | Jan 2012 |
| Barclays Capital | 2-5% | N/A |
| 0-4% | Jan 2012 | |
| Carnegie Group | 2.0% | Dec 2011 |
| 0% | Jul 2012 | |
| Cowan LRA | 8.4% | Oct 2011 |
| 5.9% | Jan 2012 | |
| 2.3-4.3% | Feb 2012 | |
| 0% | Jul 2012 | |
| -0.9% | Aug 2012 | |
| -0.5% | Sep 2012 | |
| -2.6% | Nov 2012 | |
| -2.3% | Dec 2012 | |
| -2.2% | Jan 2013 | |
| FBR Capital Markets | 5.0% | Dec 2011 |
| Future Horizons | 8.0% | Oct 2011 |
| 4.0% | Jul 2012 | |
| -2.4% | Nov 2012 | |
| Gartner | 8.6% | N/A |
| 4.6% | Sep 2011 | |
| 2.2% | Dec 2011 | |
| 4.0% | Mar 2012 | |
| -3.0% | Nov 2012 | |
| Henderson Ventures | 2.2% | Jun 2012 |
| IBS | 6-7% | Jan 2012 |
| -0.3% | Nov 2012 | |
| IC Insights | 11.0% | Jan 2011 |
| 5.0% | Sep 2011 | |
| 7.0% | Jan 2012 | |
| 6.0% | May 2012 | |
| 3.0% | Aug 2012 | |
| -1.0% | Nov 2012 | |
| IDC | 5.0% | Jul 2011 |
| 3.1% | Dec 2011 | |
| 6-7% | Apr 2012 | |
| 4.6% | Jul 2012 | |
| 2.5% | Nov 2012 | |
| <1.0% | Dec 2012 | |
| IHS iSuppli | 1.5% | Oct 2010 |
| 4.8% | Jun 2011 | |
| 3.4% | Sep 2011 | |
| 3.2% | Nov 2011 | |
| 3.3% | Jan 2012 | |
| 4.3% | Apr 2012 | |
| <3.0% | Aug 2012 | |
| -0.1% | Aug 2012 | |
| -3.1% | Nov 2012 | |
| -2.3% | Dec 2012 | |
| Semico | 8.0% | Oct 2011 |
| 10.0% | Dec 2011 | |
| 8.0% | Jan 2012 | |
| 10.1% | Feb 2012 | |
| 8.6% | Jul 2012 | |
| 6-8% | Aug 2012 | |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 8.0% | Oct 2010 |
| 10.0% | Aug 2011 | |
| 9.0% | Nov 2011 | |
| -1.0% | Feb 2012 | |
| 2.0% | Apr 2012 | |
| -1.0% | Aug 2012 | |
| -2.5% | Nov 2012 | |
| TSMC | 3-5% | Oct 2011 |
| 2.0% | Jan 2012 | |
| 1-2% | Jul 2012 | |
| VLSI Research | 7.9% | Dec 2010 |
| 2.3% | Jun 2012 | |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 10-15% | Aug 2011 |
| 0% | Aug 2012 | |
| WSTS | 5.6% | Nov 2010 |
| 4.2% | Dec 2010 | |
| 7.6% | Jun 2011 | |
| 2.6% | Dec 2011 | |
| 0.4% | Jun 2012 | |
| -3.2% | Nov 2012 |
2011 Forecasts
| Company | 2011 Forecasted Growth |
As of |
| Barclays Capital | 1-2% | Jan 2012 |
| Carnegie ASA | 8.0% | Oct 2010 |
| 5.0% | May 2011 | |
| Cowan LRA | 2.3% | Dec 2010 |
| 5.1% | Feb 2011 | |
| 5.0% | Oct 2011 | |
| Databeans | 8.0% | Feb 2011 |
| 5.0% | Jul 2011 | |
| Future Horizons | 9.0% | Sep 2010 |
| 6.0% | Dec 2010 | |
| 4.0% | Jul 2011 | |
| 1.0% | Oct 2011 | |
| Gartner | 4.6% | Sep 2010 |
| 5.1% | Jun 2011 | |
| -0.1% | Sep 2011 | |
| 0.9% | Dec 2011 | |
| IC Insights | 11.0% | Nov 2010 |
| 10.0% | Dec 2010 | |
| 5.0% | Aug 2011 | |
| IC Knowledge | >10.0% | Dec 2010 |
| IDC | 9.0% | Dec 2010 |
| 6-8% | Apr 2011 | |
| 3.4% | Dec 2011 | |
| International Business Strategies | 7.4% | Jan 2011 |
| IHS iSuppli | 5.1% | Oct 2010 |
| 7.0% | Apr 2011 | |
| 7.2% | Jun 2011 | |
| 4.6% | Aug 2011 | |
| 2.9% | Sep 2011 | |
| 1.2% | Nov 2011 | |
| Nomura Securities | 3.1% | Dec 2010 |
| 4.4% | May 2011 | |
| Semico | 9.5% | Nov 2010 |
| 8.0% | Dec 2010 | |
| 6.0% | Jan 2011 | |
| -2.0% | Sep 2011 | |
| -1.4% | Oct 2011 | |
| 0.34% | Dec 2011 | |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | 9.0% | Oct 2010 |
| 4.0% | Aug 2011 | |
| 3.0% | Nov 2011 | |
| TSMC | 2.0% | May 2011 |
| 4.0% | Jul 2011 | |
| 1.0% | Oct 2011 | |
| VLSI Research | 4.4% | Nov 2010 |
| 8.9% | Mar 2011 | |
| 12.2% | Mar 2011 | |
| 8.0% | N/A | |
| 3.0% | Sep 2011 | |
| Wells Fargo Securities | 0-5% | Aug 2011 |
| WSTS | 4.5% | Nov 2010 |
| 5.6% | Dec 2010 | |
| 5.4% | Jun 2011 | |
| 1.3% | Dec 2011 |
Actual Growth
Actual Sales 1994-2011 (WW Semi & Fabless)
| Semiconductor Revenue ($M) |
Fabless Revenue ($M) |
% of Fabless Revenue to Semiconductor |
|
| 1994 | $101,800 | $3,248 | 3.2% |
| 1995 | $144,400 | $5,921 | 4.1% |
| 1996 | $131,900 | $6,729 | 5.1% |
| 1997 | $137,200 | $7,435 | 5.4% |
| 1998 | $126,600 | $7,280 | 5.8% |
| 1999 | $149,400 | $10,183 | 6.8% |
| 2000 | $204,400 | $16,983 | 8.3% |
| 2001 | $138,900 | $13,307 | 9.6% |
| 2002 | $140,800 | $14,632 | 10.4% |
| 2003 | $166,400 | $22,347 | 13.4% |
| 2004 | $213,000 | $33,362 | 15.7% |
| 2005 | $227,500 | $38,977 | 17.1% |
| 2006 | $247,700 | $49,591 | 20.0% |
| 2007 | $275,500 | $51,503 | 18.7% |
| 2008 | $258,600 | $50,976 | 19.7% |
| 2009 | $235,163 | $56,189 | 23.9% |
| 2010 | $299,894 | $73,612 | 24.5% |
| 2011 | $307,095 | $73,713 | 24.0% |
Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.
Actual Growth 1994-2011 (WW Semi & Fabless)
| Semiconductor Growth (%) |
Fabless Growth (%) |
|
| 1995 | 41.8% | 82.3% |
| 1996 | -8.7% | 13.6% |
| 1997 | 4.0% | 10.5% |
| 1998 | -7.7% | -2.1% |
| 1999 | 18.0% | 39.9% |
| 2000 | 36.8% | 66.8% |
| 2001 | -32.0% | -21.6% |
| 2002 | 1.4% | 10.0% |
| 2003 | 18.2% | 52.7% |
| 2004 | 28.0% | 49.3% |
| 2005 | 6.8% | 16.8% |
| 2006 | 8.9% | 27.2% |
| 2007 | 11.2% | 3.9% |
| 2008 | -6.1% | -1.0% |
| 2009 | -9.1% | 10.2% |
| 2010 | 27.5% | 31.0% |
| 2011 | 2.4% | 0.1% |
Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.
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