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Global Semiconductor Alliance Logo

Forecasts

In 2008, GSA started tracking semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish at year-end. We periodically update the table as analysts revise their forecasts, tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.

  • 2019 Forecasts
  • 2018 Forecasts
  • 2017 Forecasts
  • 2016 Forecasts
  • 2015 Forecasts
  • Actual Growth

2019 Forecasts

Company 2019
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Cowan LRA 4.5% Mar 2018
5.2% Apr 2018
4.6% May 2018
5.0% June 2018
5.0% July 2018
5.0% Aug 2018
Gartner 7.0% July 2018
IC Insights 4.0% July 2018
IHS Markit 4.0% July 2018
VLSI Research -3.8% June 2018
WSTS 4.4% June 2018
5.2% Aug 2018

2018 Forecasts

Company 2018
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Cowan LRA 3.6% Mar 2017
4.6% Apr 2017
3.5% May 2017
3.4% June 2017
3.3% July 2017
3.1% Aug 2017
3.2% Sep 2017
3.3% Oct 2017
3.1% Nov 2017
3.2% Dec 2017
5.9% Jan 2018
16.4% Mar 2018
16.8% Apr 2018
14.7% May 2018
15.9% June 2018
16.8% July 2018
16.3% Aug 2018
Future Horizons 16.0% Sep 2017
21.0% Jan 2018
Gartner 4.0% Oct 2017
7.5% Jan 2018
11.8% Apr 2018
IC Insights 8.0% Jan 2018
15.0% Mar 2018
14.0% July 2018
IDC 7.7% May 2018
IHS Markit 7.4% Jan 2018
Semico Research 7.2% Jan 2018
Semiconductor Intelligence 6.0% Feb 2017
7.0% May 2017
10.0% Sep 2017
12.0% Dec 2017
12.0% Feb 2018
16.0% June 2018
VLSI Research 7.7% Jan 2018
WSTS 2.3% Nov 2016
2.3% Feb 2017
2.7% June 2017
4.3% Aug 2017
7.0% Nov 2017
9.5% Feb 2018
12.4% June 2018
15.7% Aug 2018

2017 Forecasts

Company 2017
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Cowan LRA 4.7% Mar 2016
7.1% Apr 2016
6.1% May 2016
6.1% Jul 2016
5.4% Sep 2016
5.3% Oct 2016
4.5% Nov 2016
4.7% Dec 2016
4.4% Jan 2017
14.7% Mar 2017
17.5% Apr 2017
15.3% May 2017
16.1% June 2017
16.8% July 2017
16.7% Aug 2017
17.8% Sep 2017
18.9% Oct 2017
18.4% Nov 2017
19.6% Dec 2017
20.8% Jan 2018
Databeans Inc. 10.1% Apr 2017
Deutsche Bank 5.0% Dec 2016
Future Horizons -1.0% Sep 2016
11.0% Jan 2017
20.0% Sep 2017
Gartner 5.4% Dec 2015
4.7% Aug 2016
7.2% Jan 2017
12.3% Apr 2017
16.8% Jul 2017
19.7% Oct 2017
21.6% Apr 2018
IBS 3.9% Apr 2015
4.6% Nov 2016
IC Insights 4.0% Oct 2016
5.0% Feb 2017
11.0% Mar 2017
15.0% Jul 2017
16.0% Aug 2017
22.0% Oct 2017
IHS Markit 4.8% Sep 2016
21.0% Nov 2017
21.7% Mar 2018
MIC 1.8% Sep 2016
Semico Research 5.3% Jan 2017
Semiconductor Intelligence 7.5% May 2016
8.0% Aug 2016
8.0% Dec 2016
10.0% Feb 2017
16.0% May 2017
18.5% Sep 2017
21.0% Dec 2017
TSMC 4.0% Jan 2017
Wells Fargo Securities 8-14% Mar 2016
WSTS 3.1% Dec 2015
3.0% Mar 2016
2.0% Jun 2016
3.0% Nov 2016
3.3% Dec 2016
6.5% Feb 2017
11.5% June 2017
17.0% Aug 2017
20.6% Nov 2017
21.6% Aug 2018

2016 Forecasts

Company 2016
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Cowan LRA 6.0% Feb 2015
6.0% Mar 2015
6.5% Apr 2015
5.2% May 2015
5.2% Jun 2015
5.4% Jul 2015
5.3% Aug 2015
5.4% Sep 2015
5.1% Nov 2015
5.1% Dec 2015
4.9% Jan 2016
3.3% Mar 2016
2.5% Apr 2016
-1.8% May 2016
-2.1% Jul 2016
-2.1% Sep 2016
-1.6% Oct 2016
-1.4% Nov 2016
-0.5% Dec 2016
0.5% Jan 2017
Credit Suisse -0.5% Oct 2015
Databeans 3.0% May 2016
Future Horizons 0.0% Sep 2015
-3.8% Sep 2016
Gartner 1.0% Oct 2014
1.3% Jul 2015
1.9% Oct 2015
-0.6% Apr 2016
-3.0% Aug 2016
-0.9% Oct 2016
1.5% Jan 2017
IBS -1.5% Jan 2016
-2.1% Apr 2016
0.2% Nov 2016
IC Insights 5.0% Oct 2015
4.0% Jan 2016
-1.0% Jul 2016
1.0% Oct 2016
IDC -2.3% May 2016
IHS Markit 1.8% Nov 2016
Objective Analysis 12.0% Jan 2016
Semico Research 7.6% Sep 2015
3-4% Dec 2015
-0.3% Mar 2016
-2.5% Oct 2016
Semiconductor Intelligence 5-9% Sep 2014
7.0% Dec 2014
7.0% Mar 2015
7.0% Jun 2015
6.0% Aug 2015
6.0% Oct 2015
3.0% Feb 2016
1.0% May 2016
-2.0% Aug 2016
0.1% Dec 2016
SIA 1.1% Feb 2017
TrendForce -0.6% Dec 2015
TSMC 1.0% Apr 2016
VLSI Research 4.1% Feb 2016
-0.7% Aug 2016
Wells Fargo Securities 7.0% Mar 2016
WSTS 3.1% Dec 2014
3.1% Mar 2015
3.4% Jun 2015
3.1% Aug 2015
1.4% Dec 2015
0.3% Mar 2016
-2.4% Jun 2016
0.0% Nov 2016
-0.1% Dec 2016

2015 Forecasts

Company 2015
Forecasted
Growth
As of
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 6.8% Dec 2014
Bharat Book Bureau 3.4% Mar 2015
Cowan LRA 6.0% Mar 2014
4.7% Apr 2014
4.2% May 2014
4.4% Jun 2014
4.6% Jul 2014
4.4% Aug 2014
4.6% Sep 2014
4.6% Oct 2014
4.3% Nov 2014
4.2% Dec 2014
4.1% Jan 2015
4.2% Feb 2015
9.5% Mar 2015
8.8% Apr 2015
4.7% May 2015
5.1% Jun 2015
5.3% Jul 2015
3.4% Aug 2015
2.7% Sep 2015
1.0% Nov 2015
0.9% Dec 2015
0.7% Jan 2016
Credit Suisse 0.3% Oct 2015
EE Herald 2-3% Jul 2015
Future Horizons 18.0% Jan 2014
15.0% Sep 2014
8.5% Jan 2015
2.0% Sep 2015
Gartner 4.8% Apr 2014
5.0% Aug 2014
5.8% Oct 2014
5.4% Jan 2015
4.0% Apr 2015
2.2% Jul 2015
-0.8% Oct 2015
-1.9% Jan 2016
-2.3% Apr 2016
GMR Data 3.4% Mar 2015
IC Insights 7.5% Sep 2014
7.0% Jan 2015
5.0% May 2015
2.0% Aug 2015
-1.0% Oct 2015
IDC 3.8% Jan 2015
3.6% Mar 2015
5.0% Sep 2015
IHS Technology 5.0% Apr 2015
MIC 3.1% Sep 2014
Objective Analysis 10.0% Dec 2014
Semico Research 4.3% Sep 2015
Semiconductor Intelligence 9.0% May 2014
11.0% Sep 2014
11.0% Dec 2014
8.0% Mar 2015
5.5% Jun 2015
1.5% Aug 2015
1.0% Oct 2015
TSIA 2.0% Sep 2015
TSMC 4.0% Apr 2015
3.0% Jul 2015
0.0% Oct 2015
VLSI Research 7.8% Jan 2015
-1.0% Aug 2015
Wells Fargo Securities 8-12% Jan 2015
WSTS 3.4% Dec 2013
3.3% Jun 2014
3.4% Dec 2014
4.9% Mar 2015
3.4% Jun 2015
2.3% Aug 2015
0.2% Dec 2015

Actual Growth

Web Picture
Actual Semiconductor Sales & Growth 1994-2017

Semiconductor
Revenue ($B)
YoY Growth
1994 $101.8 32.2%
1995 $144.4 41.8%
1996 $131.9 -8.7%
1997 $137.2 4.0%
1998 $126.6 -7.7%
1999 $149.4 18.0%
2000 $204.4 36.8%
2001 $138.9 -32.0%
2002 $140.8 1.4%
2003 $166.4 18.2%
2004 $213.0 28.0%
2005 $227.5 6.8%
2006 $247.7 8.9%
2007 $275.2 11.1%
2008 $243.0 -11.7%
2009 $235.2 -3.2%
2010 $315.5 34.1%
2011 $314.7 -0.3%
2012 $289.0 -8.2%
2013 $318.5 10.2%
2014 $339.4 6.6%
2015 $320.6 -5.5%
2016 $336.0 4.8%
2017 $419.0 24.7%

Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, SIA semiconductor revenue was used for semiconductor revenue, as GSA did not start tracking IDM and OSD revenue until 2007.

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